IMF Warns of Possible Surge in Global Food Prices Due to La Niña
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a potential increase in global food prices due to the likely intensification of the La Niña climate phenomenon in the last quarter of 2025. Experts indicate that the current decline in prices may change due to the impact of adverse weather conditions in key agricultural regions and possible export restrictions.
This is reported by AgroReview
Price Dynamics of Major Products
According to the IMF, from March to August 2025, the food and beverage price index decreased by 4.8%. The most significant decline was recorded in the segments of coffee, grains, and sugar, resulting from a record harvest and reduced demand for these products.
In particular, grain prices fell by 11.1% due to high harvests in the USA, Brazil, and Argentina. Coffee prices dropped by 16.7% due to improved harvests in Brazil and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies. Corn prices decreased by 11.9% thanks to a record harvest in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in the USA in the second quarter.
In August, a brief increase in prices was triggered by new trade tariffs from Washington on Brazil. However, this effect was temporary, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to changes in trade policy.
Impact of La Niña and Potential Risks
The IMF emphasizes that the cooling of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, characteristic of the La Niña phase, could disrupt the balance in the global market due to weather anomalies, including droughts or floods in leading producing countries. An additional risk remains export restrictions, which could reduce the international supply of products even at relatively low domestic prices in exporting countries.
According to FAO, the food price index in September 2025 was 128.8 points – 0.7% lower compared to August (129.7 points). The figure is 3.4% higher than in September 2024, but 19.6% lower than the peak in March 2022.
Despite the overall decline in prices, those farmers who managed to preserve their harvest and ensure its sale achieved record profits in 2025.