Ukrainian Grain Exports in 2025 Decreased by One Third Due to Harvest Delays
Ukrainian farmers are facing a new challenge — in the 2025/26 marketing year, grain exports have decreased by nearly one third due to delays in the harvest.
This is reported by AgroReview
The current agricultural season has proven to be difficult for the Ukrainian agrarian sector. Despite higher corn yields compared to the previous year, Ukrainian exporters are losing ground in the European market. As of early November 2025, the situation is raising concerns among traders and agricultural companies.
Significant Decline in Grain Exports
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, as of November 7, 2025, 9.87 million tons of grains and legumes have been exported from the country. This figure is 5.2 million tons or 34.5% lower than in the same period last year. The export of corn has decreased particularly significantly — only 2.1 million tons compared to 5.35 million tons a year ago.
The export figures for wheat have also worsened: the volume decreased by 1.52 million tons, totaling 6.41 million tons. Barley has lost over a third of its volume — exports have dropped by 33.7% compared to last year.
Main Reasons for the Decline in Exports
The primary reason for the decline in exports has been the delay in harvesting due to unfavorable weather conditions. By the end of September 2025, only about 5% of the corn area had been harvested, which is significantly below average annual figures. Due to the high moisture content of the grain, additional drying is required, which slows down the loading rates and increases logistical costs.
The cost of freight from Black Sea ports has risen to $35-37 per ton, which is $4-5 higher than August prices. At the same time, the cost of rail and road transport to the ports has increased by 10-20%, raising the cost of a ton of grain by 200-400 hryvnias.
“The share of Ukrainian corn imports in the EU has decreased threefold. European buyers, who previously actively purchased Ukrainian grain, have now shifted their focus to supplies from Brazil and the USA.”
Export prices for Ukrainian corn delivered to Black Sea ports in November are $205-207 per ton. At the western border, prices have fallen to €186-188 per ton due to decreased demand from European traders. This is forcing some producers to sell grain to domestic processing enterprises at a price of around 9,000 hryvnias per ton.
Logistical Challenges and Future Prospects
The delay in corn harvesting has negatively impacted the entire logistics system. Queues are forming at the ports as wheat, sunflower, and corn are arriving simultaneously. Rail routes are overloaded, and some exporters are forced to redirect flows to Danube terminals.
Loading of corn through Black Sea ports has decreased by 35% compared to last year, and the main volume of exports is shifting to November-December. Traders are warning of a possible further increase in logistical costs due to the accumulation of grain and a shortage of vessels during the peak period.
Analysts predict stabilization of exports in November, when grain moisture levels decrease and drying complexes operate at full capacity. Under favorable weather conditions, Ukraine could reach its planned export level — over 24 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season.
However, competition from American and Brazilian corn remains significant. The large supply of grain from the USA is putting pressure on prices in October-December. The average market price is expected to be $220-230 per ton CPT-port from November to January.
Although the delay in corn harvesting has caused short-term problems for agrilogistics, it does not pose a systemic threat to the industry. Ukrainian farmers have the opportunity to catch up if stable weather conditions prevail in the coming weeks.