USDA Releases Forecast for Wheat and Corn Production and Exports from Ukraine for the 2025/26 Season
In May, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first forecasts for the yield and export of major grains for the 2025/26 season, which are significant for agricultural producers and traders in the Black Sea region. Experts note that global wheat production in the new season is expected to increase mainly due to the recovery of normal yield levels in European Union countries after a challenging previous year.
This is reported by AgroReview
New Balance of Grain Production and Exports Worldwide
Expectations for an increase in global wheat production should not negatively impact prices, as a simultaneous increase in global trade volumes is also forecasted. This will lead only to a moderate increase in global ending stocks of wheat.
As for corn, global production this year is expected to rise primarily due to the United States, where the area planted with this crop has been expanded, and the yield forecast is considered optimistic. The market situation is complicated by the factor of China, where the harvest is expected to be at last year’s level, but consumption will significantly increase. This could lead to a substantial reduction in ending reserves, with China’s corn imports estimated by the USDA to reach 10 million tons, which is 25% more than last year.
Estimates for Ukraine and Black Sea Region Countries
The corn yield forecast for Ukraine aligns perfectly with market expectations and is set at 30.5 million tons, allowing for an increase in exports to 24 million tons (+10% year-on-year). For wheat, the USDA forecasts production at 23 million tons and exports at 16.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
USDA: Comparison of Production and Export Estimates for Grain Crops in Black Sea Countries, million tons Country Wheat Corn Barley Production Export Production Export Production Export 24/25 25/26 24/25 25/26 24/25 25/26 24/25 25/26 24/25 25/26 24/25 25/26 Ukraine 23.4 23.0 16 16.5 26.8 30.5 22.0 24.0 5.8 5.7 2.4 3.5 Russia 81.6 83.0 43.5 45.0 14.0 15.0 3.3 3.6 16.25 18.0 2.6 3.7 Kazakhstan 18.6 14.5 10.0 8.0 1.05 0.93 0.18 0.08 3.84 3.0 1.7 1.3.
The growth of grain production and exports in Black Sea countries, particularly in Ukraine and Russia, will ensure stability of supplies to global markets. Experts also note that the updated forecasts allow for the development of an effective agricultural business strategy for the coming year, taking into account possible global trends.