Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast in Ukraine for May 2025: Stability and Fluctuations
At the beginning of May 2025, the official exchange rate of the US dollar in Ukraine is expected to remain within the range of 41.2–41.6 hryvnias, according to financial analysts’ forecasts. This is due to the balance of supply and demand in the currency market, as well as the stabilization measures of the National Bank, which will contribute to maintaining moderate exchange rate dynamics.
This is reported by AgroReview
Factors Influencing the Currency Market in May 2025
The Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, Taras Lesovyi, notes that current exchange rate changes will be smooth and non-critical. According to him, “current exchange rate fluctuations are still determined by the balance between supply and demand, and the volume of currency interventions will remain within acceptable limits.” The main factors affecting the currency market continue to be the development of exports, the volume of international financial aid, and the state of key sectors of the economy, such as the agro-industrial complex, the defense industry, and construction.
Additionally, other factors may also influence the currency market, such as the situation at the front, domestic political processes, or peace negotiations. However, according to the expert, their impact will be minimal compared to economic factors. “Of course, daily news can create some tension, but the likelihood of panic or significant excitement in the currency market is low,” emphasizes Lesovyi.
Expected Currency Fluctuations in May 2025
Forecasts suggest that in May, the current dollar exchange rate may fluctuate within the range of 41.6–42 hryvnias, and the difference between the interbank and cash rates will be minimal. “We expect that exchange rate changes will not exceed 1%, and the average annual inflation rate will remain in the range of 13–15%,” adds the banker.
He also predicts that in May, price growth may reach 1.5%, which will affect exchange rate dynamics but will not cause critical fluctuations. “The main focus will be on ensuring that the managed flexibility regime provides stability to the exchange rate,” the expert emphasizes.
Regarding the situation in the domestic and external arenas, Lesovyi highlights that events at the front, peace negotiations, and the potential impact of US tariffs on aid to Ukraine remain important but not primary factors for exchange rate stability. “Changes in citizens’ sentiments in the information space may create additional tension, but no significant risks for the exchange rate are currently anticipated,” he says.
The main indicators of the currency market from April 28 to May 4 are expected to be as follows: dollar fluctuation corridors – 41.2–41.6 UAH, euro – 45–48 UAH; daily fluctuations – up to 0.15 UAH on the interbank market and up to 0.2 UAH in banks; the difference between rates on the interbank market and in cash points – about 0 UAH; weekly deviations – within 1–1.5% of the initial rate.