Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast in Ukraine for May 2025: Key Risks and Trends
The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in May 2025 is expected to experience significant volatility within a wide range. According to financial experts, including Vitaliy Martynovych, Deputy Chairman of the Board of ASVIO Bank, the probability of both strengthening and weakening of the hryvnia will persist during this period, depending on external and internal factors.
This is reported by AgroReview
Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast and Key Factors
According to Vitaliy Martynovych, by the end of April, the cashless exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar is likely to fluctuate within the range of 41.4-42.1 UAH/dollar. In May, a slight strengthening of the hryvnia to the level of 41-41.8 UAH/dollar is possible, which will depend on currency inflows from exporters, the maintenance of the National Bank’s monetary policy, and stable international support.
“In the cash segment, the exchange rate is maintained within the range of 41.5-41.9 UAH/dollar, however, a slight decrease to 40.9-41.8 UAH is possible due to seasonal demand reduction and a stable market situation,” explained Martynovych.
Key Risks for Ukraine’s Currency Market
The expert identified several key factors that could influence the exchange rate in the near future. These include geopolitical escalation, particularly in the Middle East, the dynamics of Ukraine’s financing from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, fluctuations in commodity market prices, and expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
“To minimize negative impacts, it is important to ensure stable currency inflows, maintain international reserves, and adhere to a transparent regulatory policy,” emphasized Martynovych.
He also noted that delays in external financing, changes in export volumes, and seasonal price fluctuations could create additional volatility. Active interventions from the National Bank and support from international partners are necessary to contain this volatility.
Regarding the cash and cashless markets, different dynamics are observed. Demand for foreign currency from the population is decreasing, while among businesses it is increasing, particularly in the sectors of energy imports, equipment, and raw materials. Against this backdrop, special conditions are being formed for foreign economic operations using modern payment systems, such as Visa B2B Connect.
According to Martynovych’s forecasts, in the medium term, the euro/dollar pair will maintain a level of 1.15, provided that the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remain stable. The internal exchange rate of the hryvnia against the euro in the cashless segment will be 47.2-47.9 UAH/euro, while in the cash segment it will be 47.2-47.7 UAH/euro, depending on international trends and the internal liquidity of the banking market.
At the last briefing of the National Bank of Ukraine, it was noted that the rise in the euro exchange rate in the global market contributes to imported inflation. Taking this into account, financiers advise implementing structural measures, including supporting domestic production, diversifying suppliers, and concluding multi-currency contracts to maintain macro-financial stability.