Forecast for Oil Price Decline in the US: Russian Crude Under Pressure

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecasts for the price of Brent crude oil for 2025 to $67.87 per barrel, a significant decrease from the previous $74.22. The forecast for 2026 has also been reduced, dropping from $68.47 to $61.48 per barrel.

This is reported by AgroReview

Analysts believe that commercial oil inventories will begin to rise in the second quarter of 2025. This is attributed to increased production by OPEC+ countries and a decline in demand for “black gold.” However, the primary increase in liquid hydrocarbon supplies is likely to come from non-OPEC+ countries such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Production volumes are expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2026.

Additionally, the share of Russian oil transported by Western tankers from the Baltic and Black Seas rose to 43% in April 2025, compared to 30% in the first three months of the year. This increase occurred against the backdrop of the price of Russian Urals crude falling below the G7-set threshold of $60 per barrel. Prices dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners in early April.