Forecast of the Currency Market Situation in Ukraine for the Second Quarter of 2025
In the second quarter of 2025, the corridor for the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar is expected to average between 41.8 and 42.8 hryvnias per dollar. It is noted that from the beginning of the year until July, the official dollar rate may rise by a maximum of 1.8%.
This is reported by AgroReview
Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, emphasized that the situation in the Ukrainian currency market will remain relatively stable. According to him, the monetary measures of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) that influence the strength of the hryvnia will reduce the demand for foreign currency. This may lead to a decrease in the volume of currency interventions by the NBU to maintain a balance between supply and demand.
Forecast of Currency Market Stability
“In the second quarter, the situation in the currency market will be more or less predictable: the National Bank will monitor the market, and the implemented monetary measures along with the current ‘managed flexibility’ strategy can minimize current exchange rate fluctuations,” Mamedov noted.
Furthermore, according to the expert, an important factor influencing the currency market is the fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, as well as the increasing role of other reliable currencies such as the Swiss franc and the British pound sterling. Investors may also shift their focus to the precious metals market, where prices have reached historical highs.
“The introduction of new tariffs by the US could lead to a situational weakening of the dollar. However, it is worth noting that neither the dollar nor the euro is at risk of a systemic collapse, as these currencies are and will remain quite strong, and their value is supported by the role of the US and the EU in the global economy,” Mamedov said.
Impact of the War on the Currency Market
Mamedov also noted that it is currently difficult to predict the situation at the front and the prospects for the end of the war. “The enemy’s treachery is boundless, which significantly complicates the analysis of the damage inflicted on society, the economy, infrastructure, etc. At the same time, based on the current situation, we can somewhat reassure citizens: there are currently no reasons that would compel them to rush and buy dollars or euros,” he added.
In conclusion, Mamedov emphasized that the NBU, as the main player in the currency market, is conducting a rather balanced and effective policy. If necessary or in case of threat, it is ready to intervene promptly and take the necessary measures to prevent any rapid and negative phenomena.