Geopolitics Will Determine Global Agricultural Trade in 2026 – Rabobank Forecast

The global agricultural market is entering a period where geopolitical processes will play a more significant role in shaping trade than traditional laws of supply and demand. These conclusions are drawn from the Rabobank Agri Commodity Outlook 2026 analytical report.

This is reported by AgroReview

Geopolitical Division and Political Pressure

According to Rabobank’s analysis, the global agricultural trade system is increasingly divided into two main centers of influence — the USA and China. The export of agricultural products is being used more frequently as a tool of political pressure. The escalation of trade conflicts and the increase in government subsidies are altering traditional supply chains, leading to the formation of what is referred to as a “fragmented food system.”

Increased Government Support and Price Situation

Bank experts note a strengthening of agricultural support from governments in many countries — from the USA and Brazil to Russia and Indonesia. Thanks to this support, supply in the global market remains high even amid low prices. This, in turn, may lead to consistently moderate prices for grains and oilseeds in 2026.

In the USA, soybean acreage is decreasing to its lowest levels in the past six years, while corn plantings, on the contrary, are reaching highs not seen since the 1930s. Brazil and Argentina are also showing increased production. Analysts point out that without significant weather disruptions, substantial price increases are unlikely.

“Rabobank emphasizes: the agricultural sector is entering a period of prolonged uncertainty, where political decisions will play as significant a role as yields or global stocks.”

The report indicates the likelihood of price disparities between different regions due to tariffs and trade barriers. Additionally, the growth rates of global trade may remain low due to slow economic growth. It is projected that in 2026, global GDP may decrease to 2.7%.