Low Oil Prices: Bank Forecasts and Impact on Russia’s Budget

International banking institutions have revised their forecasts for oil prices, lowering expectations to $58.3 per barrel for the current year. This is a significant decrease compared to previous forecasts, which last autumn were $61.89 per barrel. Experts also predict that by 2035, oil prices will remain within the range of $56.24-57.24 per barrel.

This is reported by AgroReview

Price Dynamics and OPEC’s Influence

The global market is already witnessing a significant drop in oil prices – from $82 to $65 per barrel. This has resulted from a series of OPEC decisions to increase production. At the current pace of production growth, OPEC+ countries may complete their 18-month program as early as October this year. Analysts attribute these trends to the rise in oil production in OPEC countries and the USA against a backdrop of relatively stable global demand.

Consequences for the Russian Economy

The decline in oil prices significantly impacts the economy of the Russian Federation. The Russian Urals oil brand has decreased in price by $15 over the year leading up to May, reaching $52 per barrel. Particularly indicative is the situation of the fourth largest oil company in Russia – Surgutneftegas.

The fourth largest oil company in Russia, Surgutneftegas, which faced sanctions at the beginning of 2025, reported a loss of ₽439.7 billion ($5.55 billion) in the first quarter, while last year it had a profit of ₽268.5 billion ($3.39 billion).