NBU Assesses the Impact of New US Tariffs on the Ukrainian Economy and Agricultural Sector

The National Bank of Ukraine has analyzed the consequences of the new wave of global tariffs imposed by the US, which began after the inauguration of President Joe Biden, on the Ukrainian economy and agricultural sector. Although the changes in US trade policy were anticipated, the scale and speed of their implementation surprised global markets and caused significant turbulence on international financial fronts.

This is reported by AgroReview

Impact of US Tariffs on Ukrainian Exports and Economy

According to the NBU, Ukraine has remained one of the countries least affected by the new American tariffs. Due to a positive trade balance with the US, the additional tariffs on Ukrainian goods have only impacted 10% of exports. Since the volumes of Ukrainian exports to the US are relatively small, the direct economic impact of the new restrictions on the country as a whole is minimal.

At the same time, some Ukrainian exporters may benefit from seeking new markets and opening niche opportunities. However, the main risk for the Ukrainian economy lies in indirect consequences — a decrease in external demand due to the slowdown of the economies of trading partners, particularly in the Eurozone and Central and Eastern European countries. This has been one of the reasons for the revision of the GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2025 to 3.1%.

Potential Prospects for the Ukrainian Agricultural Sector and Transport Industry

In the short term, the decline in economic activity is expected to be limited due to fiscal stimuli and the accumulated experience of adapting to new global value chains. There remains stable demand for food products in the Ukrainian agricultural sector even during economic recessions. Furthermore, potential exacerbation of global food risks may encourage importers to increase their stocks, which would positively affect Ukraine’s export revenue.

Potential opportunities for development are also emerging in the transport sector, particularly through the partial reorientation of global logistics routes in response to new trade conditions.