NBU Keeps Key Interest Rate at 15.5% to Stabilize Economy

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to maintain the key interest rate at 15.5%, consistent with previous levels. According to the NBU’s press service, this decision is aimed at supporting the stability of the currency market, controlling inflation expectations, and gradually reducing the inflation rate to the target of 5% in the long term.

This is reported by AgroReview

Justification of the Decision and Economic Forecast

The statement emphasizes that due to the high level of uncertainty, which has only intensified in recent months, the NBU will respond flexibly to changes in the balance of risks for price dynamics. It is noted that in the first quarter of 2025, inflation remained close to forecast levels, reaching 14.6% year-on-year in March. This is attributed to the residual effects of last year’s poor harvests, rising prices for excise goods, as well as increased costs for energy resources and labor, along with sustained consumer demand.

The NBU’s forecast suggests that by the summer of 2025, year-on-year price growth will begin to slow down for a wide range of goods and services. According to the regulator’s estimates, by the end of 2025, inflation will decrease to 8.7%, and in 2026, it will reach the target of 5%, aligning with the inflation target.

Main Risks to the Economy

The primary risk to further economic development and inflation dynamics remains the situation surrounding the full-scale war. This leaves uncertainty regarding future economic trends and potential fluctuations in financial markets.