The National Bank of Ukraine May Lower the Discount Rate in October 2025

Analysts from a leading investment company note that in September 2025, the annual inflation rate in Ukraine slowed to 11.9%. This is significantly lower than in August (13.2%) and in May, when it peaked at 15.9%. As of September, inflation turned out to be lower than the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine, which in July expected a figure of 13.1%.

This is reported by AgroReview

Factors Influencing Inflation

The slowdown in price growth was noted across almost all categories of the consumer basket, with exceptions in the education sector and the hotel and restaurant business. At the same time, the largest impact on the slowdown in inflation came from the food segment, made possible by this year’s high harvest of vegetables and fruits.

Experts do not see significant risks that could change the dynamics of disinflation. The growth of Ukrainian households’ incomes remains low due to moderate increases in social payments and salaries in the public sector. Additionally, it is expected that administratively set tariffs for gas and electricity for the population will remain unchanged throughout the year, and this year’s harvest will provide a sufficient supply of food in the market.

Forecast for the Discount Rate

“We expect the trend of slowing inflation to continue and foresee it at 8.5% by the end of 2025. This allows the NBU to begin a cycle of gradual easing of monetary policy as early as October this year – we anticipate a reduction in the discount rate next week by 50 basis points,” experts predicted.

Therefore, in the near future, the National Bank of Ukraine may announce a reduction in the discount rate, considering the positive dynamics of inflation and the stability of key economic indicators.