Ukraine to Create a Financial Buffer of $10.1 Billion for Negative Scenario

Ukraine plans to divide external funding from G7 countries under the ERA mechanism into three parts, which will be allocated from frozen Russian assets. The first part will be directed towards budget financing for the current year, the second will be for advance financing of next year’s deficit, and the third part will serve as conditional funding for a negative scenario.

This is reported by AgroReview

Last year, $1 billion was received under the ERA, this year $39.4 billion is expected, next year $2.4 billion, and in the first quarter of 2027, $1.3 billion. Regarding the formation of a financial buffer for a negative scenario, $9.1 billion from this year’s ERA receipts and $1 billion from next year’s receipts will be allocated for its creation.

Funding Forecast for Basic and Negative Scenarios

According to the basic scenario, which anticipates the end of the war by the end of 2025, the external funding needed to cover the 2025 deficit will amount to $39.8 billion, $20 billion for the following year, and $3.1 billion in the first quarter of 2027. However, under the negative scenario, which assumes the continuation of the war until mid-2026, funding required to cover the 2025 deficit will be $48.8 billion, $21 billion for the next year, and $7.1 billion in the first quarter of 2027.