Will There Be a Fuel Shortage for Farmers in March 2026: Prices, Forecasts, and the Impact of Geopolitics

Amid preparations for spring fieldwork in Ukraine, the fuel market is showing a nervous yet stable situation. Although there is currently no observed shortage of diesel fuel and gasoline, prices at gas stations are noticeably rising. Experts in the agricultural sector have analyzed the key factors affecting fuel costs, which are critically important for agricultural producers.

This is reported by AgroReview

Reasons for Price Increases: Global and Domestic Factors

As noted by Dmitry Lyoshkin, founder of the Prime group of companies, there is no physical shortage in the Ukrainian oil products market, and all the needs of farmers are met. However, psychological pressure and expectations of further price increases are already stimulating heightened demand among consumers.

“There is enough fuel in Ukraine, and there are currently no grounds to speak of empty tanks. However, the psychological factor and expectations of further price hikes are already fueling demand.”

At premium gas station networks, the price of fuel has already exceeded 70 hryvnias per liter, and analysts predict a possible increase to 75–80 hryvnias in the near future. The main reason is the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which affects global oil prices.

The Impact of Global Geopolitics and the Position of the USA

Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, advises farmers and transporters not to succumb to panic. According to him, excessively high energy prices are disadvantageous for leading global players, including Donald Trump. The domestic policy of the USA is aimed at reducing fuel costs, so the White House administration is making efforts to stabilize the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If logistical routes are promptly unblocked, the price of oil could return to the level of $60 per barrel, which would contribute to a decrease in prices in the Ukrainian market as well.

Challenges and Advice for Agribusiness

For farmers who are forming fuel reserves for the spring sowing season, the situation remains unpredictable. Importers have already prepared the necessary volumes to meet the needs of agricultural producers, so supply disruptions are not expected. However, the increase in diesel fuel prices, which has risen by 3–4 hryvnias since the beginning of the year, affects the cost of future crops.

• Supply Stability: Fuel is available, and logistics are functioning smoothly.
• Price Dynamics: The market is in a phase of anticipation, with possible price fluctuations within 5–7 hryvnias depending on changes in global markets.
• Strategy: Experts recommend avoiding panic buying at any cost, but advise forming a technological reserve to commence work.

Thus, the situation at Ukrainian gas stations reflects global trends, but the domestic fuel market is already adapted to changes and is capable of responding quickly to new challenges.