Business Activity in Ukraine Decreased: Assessments Remain Pessimistic

In the third quarter of 2025, Ukrainian entrepreneurs maintained cautious optimism regarding the prospects for the development of their companies and the country’s economy over the next 12 months. Most of them expect an increase in the production of goods and services, as well as positive dynamics in their business activities, despite rising inflation and currency risks.

This is reported by AgroReview

Business Expectations Index Declines

Despite positive expectations, the Business Expectations Index for enterprises in the third quarter decreased to 102.5%, down from 103.1% in the second quarter. The main negative factor for businesses remains the ongoing military actions and their consequences, which significantly affect the ability of enterprises to increase production. Additionally, the shortage of skilled workers continues to be a pressing issue. At the same time, the impact of the exchange rate, according to business assessments, has weakened.

Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Stabilize Despite Challenges

According to a study by Advanter Group, even in the face of military risks, labor shortages, and low business activity, Ukrainian small and medium-sized enterprises are gradually stabilizing their operations. The Business Activity Index (UBI) in September 2025 was 37.9 points out of a possible 100. This indicates a slight increase compared to previous results: 36.1 points in July and 36.9 at the beginning of the year. However, this level of the index still remains in the zone of negative expectations, indicating a continued sense of restrained pessimism among entrepreneurs.

“In the third quarter of 2025, businesses maintained positive assessments of business activity for the next 12 months. Respondents continued to expect an increase in the production of goods and services in Ukraine and were optimistic about the development of their own enterprises amid moderate strengthening of inflationary and exchange rate expectations.”