Business Activity in Ukraine in October 2025: Trade and Construction Sectors Show Optimism
In October 2025, Ukrainian businesses generally maintained positive assessments of their economic activity, although business sentiments weakened somewhat compared to the previous month. The optimism was supported by stable inflows of international financial aid, active consumer demand, government funding for infrastructure and road restoration, moderate inflation growth, and a stable currency market.
This is reported by AgroReview
Factors Influencing Economic Activity
At the same time, increased shelling, destruction of energy infrastructure, logistical and production process complications, energy shortages, high recovery and labor costs, as well as a persistent labor shortage negatively impacted the economic activity of enterprises.
“This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for the forced break in March – May 2022. In October 2025, the BAEI was 50.3 compared to 50.4 in September 2025 and was higher than the level in October 2024 (49.4)”.
Situation in Key Sectors
Trade has shown positive results for the eighth consecutive month, remaining the most optimistic among sectors. This is due to a sufficient supply of the new harvest, active consumer demand, and a decrease in inflation rates. In October, the sector index rose to 54.3 from 54.0 in September, which also exceeds the figure for October 2024 (51.9). Trading enterprises expect further growth in turnover and purchases of goods, and also note an improvement in inventory levels, although they predict a decrease in trade margins, albeit at a less significant pace.
Construction also reports improved current results, particularly due to government funding for infrastructure projects, increased residential construction, and seasonal factors. The industry index in October rose to 53.3 from 50.0 in September (49.6 in October 2024). Construction enterprises are confident in the growth of work volumes, an increase in orders and purchases of raw materials and supplies, and expect a faster pace of contractor service procurement due to the anticipated slowdown in the growth of their costs.
Industry shows more cautious assessments due to the destruction of capacities, high operational costs, energy shortages, and rising personnel costs. The sector index in October was 48.8 (compared to 49.1 in September and 49.8 in October 2024). Enterprises in this sector expect a reduction in new orders, raw material inventories, as well as a decrease in export contracts and finished goods stocks, although there remains some optimism regarding production volumes.
Services report moderately negative expectations due to the destruction of railway infrastructure, complications and rising logistics costs, as well as a shortage of qualified personnel. The industry index in October was 48.7 (49.4 in September, 47.2 in October 2024). Operators expect a decrease in new order volumes, but positively assess the prospects for providing their own services and services in the execution process.
Regarding pricing policy, enterprises in industry, construction, and trade forecast a slowdown in the growth of supplier prices while maintaining high tariffs on their own products and services. In contrast, the services sector anticipates rising prices amid accelerating growth in procurement costs.
In the labor market, there is a partial improvement: the construction and trade sectors plan to increase the number of employees. At the same time, the industry and services sectors continue to experience a trend of staff reductions, most notably in the industrial sector.