Central Bank of Russia Forecasts Possible Economic Decline in the Fourth Quarter of 2025
The economy of the Russian Federation may face a decline at the end of 2025 after a period of slowed growth. This forecast was announced by the Central Bank of Russia, which adjusted its previous expectations regarding the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP).
This is reported by AgroReview
GDP Dynamics and New Forecast
According to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in the third quarter (July-September) of 2025, the country’s GDP grew by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. This is significantly lower than in the second quarter (1.1%) and the first quarter of 2025 (1.4%). For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the growth rate was 4.5%.
The significant growth at the end of 2024, which the Central Bank of Russia referred to as a “temporary surge in production in certain sectors,” created a high base for comparison. In this regard, the regulator has lowered its expectations for the fourth quarter of the current year: the annual GDP dynamics is now forecasted to range from minus 0.5% to plus 0.5%.
Causes and Consequences of the Possible Decline
As recently as July 2025, the Central Bank of Russia did not predict any economic decline, expecting GDP growth in October-December to be between 0% and 1%. If a decrease in the annual figure is recorded by the end of the fourth quarter, it would mark the first instance of a decline in the Russian economy since January-March 2023, when a decline of 1.6% was recorded. Since then, the Russian economy has shown exclusively positive dynamics.
The GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 turned out to be significantly lower than the expectations of the Central Bank of Russia, which had forecasted 1.6% in annual terms as recently as August.
The Central Bank of Russia noted that the “overheating of the economy” is gradually decreasing; however, many factors (tension in the labor market, persistent inflation rates above 4%, and model calculations) indicate that the overheating may be greater than previously anticipated and may end later than expected.
Experts emphasize that key factors for future dynamics remain the tense situation in the labor market, high inflation levels, and the prolonged impact of the previous economic overheating. The further development of these factors will determine when the Russian economy can return to sustainable growth.