Brazil Forecasts New Record Soybean Harvest and Export Growth for 2025-2026
Brazil is expected to achieve another record soybean harvest in the 2025-2026 season, made possible by favorable weather conditions and high demand for the product from China. This is stated in a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
This is reported by AgroReview
Increase in Soybean Planting Area and Production
By the end of December, the soybean planting campaign in most regions of Brazil was completed on over 98.5% of the planned area. It is forecasted that soybean plantings will cover 49.1 million hectares, which is a 3.1% increase compared to the previous year. As a result, soybean production could reach 177 million tons — a 3.2% increase from the 2024-2025 season.
Export figures are also showing positive dynamics. Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to total 113 million tons, an increase of 3.7%. The majority of this growth will be driven by strong demand from China. According to the analysis, soybean shipments to China from January to November increased by 16.5% compared to the same period of the previous season.
“As of the second half of December, soybean planting has been completed on more than 98.5% of the total projected area in most regions, reports the service.”
Production of Soybean Oil and Biodiesel: Impact of New Standards
Soybean oil production in Brazil for 2025-2026 is estimated at 12.3 million tons, which is a 4.1% increase compared to the previous season. The main factor behind this growth is the increase in the mandatory biodiesel blend from B14 to B15, which was implemented in August 2025. Further changes to the mandate — to B16 — are also possible as early as March this year.
The expansion of biodiesel production is expected to stimulate domestic demand for soybean oil, which accounts for about 75% of the total biodiesel production in the country. According to FAS estimates, the implementation of the B15 standard will facilitate the additional processing of over 7 million tons of soybean oil for biodiesel needs — a 9% increase over the 2024 level.
As a result of processing soybeans in Brazil, 46.1 million tons of soybean meal will be produced, of which over 52% is planned for export. The export volume of meal will amount to 24 million tons.
It is worth noting that by the end of the year, soybeans fell to third place among supplies from Brazil to Russia. At the same time, since the beginning of the season, imports of American soybeans to this region have dropped by 63%, reaching a historical low of 150,000 tons.