Canada Forecasts Record Wheat Harvest in 2025/26 Marketing Year
Canada is expected to achieve a record wheat harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year — 39.96 million tons, which is 11% higher than last year’s figure and 23% above the average result of the last five years. If the forecast holds true, the harvest will set a new historical high, exceeding the previous record from the 2013/14 marketing year by 6%.
This is reported by AgroReview
Increase in Yield and Sown Areas
The record production has been made possible by an increase in the yield of key wheat varieties — Western Red Spring (CWRS), Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD), and winter wheat. The average yield has risen from 3.37 to 3.75 tons/hectare, while the sown areas for wheat have increased by 1% to reach 10.66 million hectares.
Production of spring wheat has increased by 10.3%, totaling 29.3 million tons, due to a rise in yield to 3.95 tons/hectare, which offset a 2.1% reduction in harvested area. Durum wheat harvest has grown by 11.8%, reaching 7.1 million tons due to improved yield at 2.75 tons/hectare and better collection rates. Winter wheat showed a 17% increase — up to 3.6 million tons, mainly due to the expansion of harvested areas, although yield slightly decreased to 5.75 tons/hectare (compared to 5.84 tons/hectare in 2024).
Active Exports and Stable Domestic Demand
The revision of production estimates has allowed for an increase in the export forecast to 29.5 million tons, which accounts for 67% of total domestic production. In comparison, in the previous marketing year, Canada exported 29.3 million tons of wheat, while in the 2023/24 marketing year — 25.4 million tons. Over the last five years, the country has annually supplied between 53% and 71% of its wheat production to foreign markets.
“Domestic consumption in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected at 9.35 million tons, which represents 21% of total supplies, compared to 8.4 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year and aligns with the three-year average. This indicates stable demand in the domestic market amid record production and active exports.”