Corn Prices in Ukraine Decline Due to Low Export Demand and Increased Harvest
Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decrease due to expectations of a high harvest and reduced demand from exporters. Over the past week, prices fell by another $2–3 per ton, reaching levels of $202–204/ton with delivery to Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, in hryvnia equivalent, the price of corn remained stable at 9500–9600 UAH/ton, which was made possible by a 1.2% strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia over the week.
This is reported by AgroReview
Supply and Demand Dynamics for Corn
The market is experiencing a slow increase in corn supply, as most farmers are focused on harvesting sunflower and soybean, as well as sowing winter wheat. Farmers are trying to complete their work before the next wave of precipitation, which meteorologists forecast for the coming days. It is expected that demand from exporters may increase in the coming weeks.
According to Platts, as of October 6, the price of Ukrainian corn on FOB terms at Black Sea ports for shipments in the first half of November was $213/ton, which is $28/ton lower than two months ago. The reason for this is the intensification of competition in global markets from cheaper American and Brazilian corn.
Global Markets and Export Situation
Ukrainian corn exports in September 2025 reached only 40,000 tons, and in the first half of October — 125,000 tons. In comparison, in the corresponding periods last year, these figures were 412,000 and 780,000 tons, respectively. Against this backdrop, corn exports from the USA in the 2025/26 marketing year (since September 1) reached 7.94 million tons, which is 65% higher than last year’s result.
According to the ANEC agency’s forecast, Brazil may export 6.46 million tons of corn in October. Meanwhile, CONAB has raised its forecast for Brazil’s corn harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year by 0.32 million tons to 138.6 million tons. This significantly exceeds the USDA’s September forecast (131 million tons) and last year’s harvest (135 million tons).
December corn futures in Chicago fell by 1.9% over the week to $162/ton (a decrease of 2.7% over the month and 6% over the year). At the same time, the market received support from active sales of American corn. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, official reports on the harvesting progress are not being released; however, according to Reuters estimates, 44% of the area has already been harvested, and favorable weather will allow for an acceleration of the harvesting pace.
In the European market, November corn futures on the Paris exchange lost 1.9% over the week, reaching €184.75/ton ($215/ton). The decline continues under pressure from an increased wheat harvest forecast and the influx of cheap Brazilian corn.
According to calculations by the European Commission, from July 1 to October 5, 2025, corn imports to the EU decreased by 30% compared to the previous season, totaling 3.926 million tons. Supplies from Brazil increased 2.2 times (from 0.949 to 2.14 million tons), while imports from Ukraine decreased 3.8 times (from 2.733 to 0.706 million tons), and from the USA — from 1.04 to 0.752 million tons.
The loss of the traditional European market for Ukrainian corn and the decrease in demand from Turkey and Egypt will increase pressure on prices.
In Turkey, one of the main importers of Ukrainian corn, the harvesting of its own crop has begun, which also affects the decline in demand for imported products. In other key markets, particularly in Egypt and Spain, Ukrainian corn is losing competitiveness due to cheaper supplies from South America and the USA.