Corn Prices in Ukraine Plummet at Elevators Due to Weather and Logistics Factors
There has been a significant decrease in corn prices at Ukrainian elevators. The main reasons for this are unfavorable weather conditions for harvesting, increased grain moisture, limited elevator capacities for drying and receiving, as well as a substantial rise in transportation costs to ports.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Weather Conditions and Logistics on the Corn Market
The current situation is complicated by threats from the Russian Federation, which threatens to intensify attacks on Ukrainian ports and vessels in an attempt to block exports. This has led to increased insurance and freight rates for shipments from Ukrainian ports.
“An additional pressure has come from the threats by the Russian Federation to intensify attacks on Ukrainian ports and vessels to block exports, which have resulted in higher insurance and freight rates from Ukrainian ports.”
As of November 28, Ukraine has harvested 22.486 million tons of corn from an area of 3.31 million hectares, which is 75% of the total sown area. The average yield currently stands at 6.79 tons per hectare. According to meteorologists’ forecasts, frost and dry weather are expected in the coming week, which may reduce grain moisture (currently reaching 25-35%) and facilitate the completion of the harvest.
Price Dynamics and Competition in the Global Market
The cost of transporting grain from elevators to ports has increased by 400-1000 UAH/ton and currently ranges from 1400 to 2000 UAH/ton. This is due to an increase in grain supply and a shortage of transportation. In response, traders have lowered purchase prices at elevators to 8200-8600 UAH/ton.
In Ukrainian ports, export demand prices for corn have fallen by 50-150 UAH/ton over the past week, now standing at 9850-9900 UAH/ton, or 206-207 USD per ton with delivery in December to Black Sea ports.
The pace of corn exports remains low: since the beginning of the 2025/26 season, only 3.88 million tons of the grain crop have been exported compared to 7.6 million tons during the same period last year.
On global exchanges, December corn futures in Chicago rose by 1.1% over the week, reaching 172 USD per ton (0.5% over the month). The price is supported by expectations of possible export restrictions from Ukraine but remains under pressure from increased global supplies of wheat and corn.
According to forecasts from the ANEC agency, Brazil will export 5 million tons of corn in December — the same amount as in November and more than in December 2024 (3.6 million tons). This intensifies competition for Ukrainian and American corn in global markets.