Corn Prices in Ukraine Under Pressure from Decreased Demand Due to the War in the Persian Gulf
This is reported by AgroReview
The war against Iran has already led to a sharp increase in global oil prices – by 15%, and gas prices – by 30%. It is expected that fertilizers will also become more expensive in the near future. However, unlike previous trends, prices for grains and oilseeds are currently under pressure due to a reduction in physical demand from traditional importers of Ukrainian grain in the Middle Eastern countries.
Ukrainian Corn Exports: Trends and Issues
In February 2026, Ukraine exported 2.48 million tons of corn. The largest buyers were Turkey (802 thousand tons, or 32% of total exports), Spain (477 thousand tons), Italy (343 thousand tons), and the Netherlands (256 thousand tons). During the 2025/26 marketing year, corn exports from Ukraine amounted to 11.54 million tons – a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year (14.92 million tons). Before the current season ends, approximately 11 million tons of corn still need to be shipped to meet the export plan.
It is worth noting that Turkey has re-exported some of the corn imported from Ukraine to Iran. A decrease in demand from this country could significantly impact the Ukrainian market.
“During the week, export prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $1/ton to $211-213/ton or 10,350-10,400 UAH/ton delivered to Black Sea ports, as farmers began to hold back sales in anticipation of rising grain prices following the increases in oil and fertilizer prices.”
Global Trends and Market Competition
Despite local price increases in Ukraine, global corn prices remain stable. On February 27, South Korean companies KFA and MFG purchased 133 thousand tons of feed corn for delivery by July 30, 2026, at a price of $250–251.05/ton C&F. This is slightly higher than in May (at $245–246/ton C&F) and corresponds to the prices of Ukrainian corn – $205–208/ton delivered to Black Sea ports.
In central Brazil, rains are delaying the harvesting and planting of corn. According to AgRural, as of February 27, 36% of the first crop corn has been harvested (compared to 46% last year), and 66% of the planned area has been sown with the second crop (last year it was 80%). As a result, some areas may be planted later than the optimal dates.
March corn futures in Chicago fell by 1.1% to $171/ton at the beginning of the week, although for the week, the increase was 1.4%, and for the month, it was 1.3%. This dynamic was influenced by the expected decrease in demand.
U.S. corn exports for the week of February 19 to 27 decreased by 8% to 1.86 million tons, making it the third-highest weekly figure in the 2025/26 marketing year. The main export destinations remain Mexico (522 thousand tons) and South Korea (222 thousand tons). Total corn exports from the U.S. since the beginning of the current marketing year have reached 39.6 million tons, which is 42.3% higher than last year’s figures.
Favorable weather conditions for corn crops in Brazil and the U.S. are currently reducing the impact of weather factors on prices. At the same time, the acceleration of corn harvesting in Argentina intensifies competition with Ukrainian and American corn in the global market, especially against the backdrop of decreasing demand.