Decline in Wheat Prices Reduces Ukrainian Exports in 2025
The decline in global exchange prices for wheat, particularly in the United States, where favorable weather conditions are aiding the planting of spring crops and the development of winter crops, negatively impacts Ukraine’s export potential. According to analysts, last week in Black Sea ports, prices for food wheat fluctuated between 10,950-11,200 UAH/ton or 234-236 USD per ton, while feed wheat prices ranged from 10,550-10,600 UAH/ton or 225-226 USD per ton.
This is reported by AgroReview
Traders’ primary interest is focused on food wheat, while demand for feed wheat has decreased. This has led to an increase in the price difference between them to 10 USD per ton, which is an unusual phenomenon in recent years when feed wheat was primarily used for blending in export batches rather than for direct export.
Decline in Global Export Volumes and Market Changes
According to data, from April 1 to April 28, wheat exports from Ukraine totaled only 628 thousand tons, which is 1.07 million tons less compared to the same period last year. For the season, this figure reached 13.75 million tons, which is 13% lower than last year’s pace. This situation is due to falling global prices, which are restraining Ukrainian farmers from active sales due to uncertainty regarding the harvest caused by drought.
As of April 24, 200 thousand hectares in Ukraine have been sown with spring wheat, which is 88% of the planned 227.5 thousand hectares. However, due to a lack of effective rainfall, the sown area remains limited. Over the past month, wheat prices have continued to decline: July futures fell by 2.7% to 195.1 USD per ton in Chicago, while the price of wheat in Kansas City decreased by 2.1% to 198.3 USD. At the same time, prices on European exchanges remain under pressure due to declining exports from the EU, reduced imports, and competition with Ukrainian wheat.
Impact of Weather Conditions and Global Trends
According to the weekly Crop Progress report, in the United States, 30% of the area has been planted with spring wheat, which is significantly lower than the average of 21%. Additionally, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition increased to 49%, which is 4% higher compared to last week. Wheat exports from the United States from April 17 to April 24 rose by 26.5% to 646.5 thousand tons, and for the season reached 19.46 million tons, exceeding last year’s figure by 14.9%. Trend analysis indicates the possibility of reaching the USDA forecast of 22.3 million tons by June 1.
According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 marketing year, EU soft wheat exports decreased by 34% to 17.1 million tons, complicating the achievement of the planned figure of 26.5 million tons. Wheat imports into the European Union have decreased by 14% to 6.62 million tons, which will further decline after June 1 due to supply restrictions from Ukraine. Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein fell to 249 USD per ton FOB over the week, a decrease of 1 USD. Such price fluctuations are attributed to active planting and rainy conditions in winter wheat growing regions, which intensify market pressure.