Demand from China and Turkey Stimulates the Ukrainian Barley Market
This is reported by AgroReview
The Ukrainian barley market is demonstrating relative stability; however, the supply of grain is gradually decreasing. Against the backdrop of declining sales volumes and uncertainty regarding the future harvest, conditions are forming for a potential price increase in the coming weeks.
Supply Constraints and Farmer Behavior
Currently, the price of barley in the domestic market fluctuates between 10,800 and 11,000 UAH/ton. According to analysts, the supply of this grain has noticeably decreased recently, as most producers have decided to temporarily halt the sale of not only barley but also other crops, such as wheat and rapeseed. The reason for this caution is the uncertainty regarding the condition of the crops after winter, as well as the lack of clear forecasts for the upcoming harvest.
“However, in recent weeks, the supply of grain has significantly decreased. Most farmers have effectively suspended sales not only of barley but also of wheat and rapeseed. The main reason is the uncertainty regarding the new harvest and the condition of the crops after the winter period. Until the market receives clearer information about the wintering of crops, producers are hesitant to enter into new contracts,” explains PUSK.
Rising External Demand and Global Factors
Alongside the decreasing supply from Ukrainian farmers, external demand for barley is strengthening. Buyers from Turkey remain particularly active. Additionally, weather conditions in other producing countries are influencing the situation: excessive moisture in France is causing problems with crops, while Romania is partially reporting harvest losses. Weather risks are also observed in the Black Sea region, which could further exacerbate the shortage in the global market.
A significant role in supporting prices is played by demand from China. Currently, the estimated price for shipments of Ukrainian barley to China is 205–208 $/ton CPT-port, while recent bids from buyers have been in the range of 202–205 $/ton. This indicates the gradual formation of stable demand from Chinese importers.
Considering the current dynamics, experts predict that March and the first half of April may become a period of price increases for barley, provided that external demand remains strong and supply from farmers is limited.