Egypt Rejects Wheat from Russia and Increases Import of Ukrainian Grain

Egypt, which remains the largest wheat importer in the world, has officially announced its refusal to purchase grain from the occupied territories of the Russian Federation and stated its intention to significantly increase imports of Ukrainian wheat. This event is already affecting the balance of power in the global grain market, especially considering Cairo’s purchasing volumes.

This is reported by AgroReview

Wheat Import Structure in Egypt: Ukraine Gradually Displaces Russia

According to USDA forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year, Egypt plans to import about 13 million tons of wheat, which is nearly equal to Ukraine’s annual export potential (16.7 million tons). In February 2026, the main suppliers were Russia (57.5% or 797 thousand tons), Romania (13.6%), and Ukraine (13.5% or 186 thousand tons). Now, nearly 800 thousand tons of Russian grain are at risk of losing the market each month.

The trend of increasing purchases of Ukrainian wheat in the Egyptian market has been observed since the summer of 2025. From July to September 2025/26, Egypt increased its import of Ukrainian grain from 450 thousand to 1.4 million tons, allowing Ukraine to capture 48% of the market in September — almost on par with Russia.

Impact on Prices and Strategies for Farmers

The increase in demand from such a large importer as Egypt creates conditions for rising prices for food wheat. As of April 2026, the price for Ukrainian wheat is 220–222 dollars per ton CPT port, and a similar range is maintained for forward contracts for the 2026 harvest.

At the same time, one should not expect easy competition — Russia is unlikely to give up the fight for the Egyptian market, maintaining its price advantage. Moreover, the agreement between the presidents is not a customs ban or a legally binding document. The implementation of this decision will depend on the actions of the state grain trader GASC and the actual conduct of procurement tenders.

“The direct dependence is simple: greater demand from a key market — pressure on price increases.”

For Ukrainian wheat producers, wheat remains the most stable crop for planting in the new season. The Egyptian factor contributes to the maintenance or even expansion of wheat acreage in the 2026/27 marketing year. Forward contracts are already being concluded at a price of 220–222 $/t. If demand from Egypt is confirmed through new GASC tenders by summer, prices may rise even further. Strategically, it is advisable for farmers to lock in part of their volumes now, while leaving the rest for potential further increases in value.

Key Figures:

• Egypt purchases 13 million tons of wheat annually.
• In February 2026, Russia’s share was 57%, while Ukraine’s was 13.5%.
• In September 2025, Ukraine’s share in Egyptian imports had already reached 48%.
• Forward price for the 2026 wheat harvest — 220–222 $/t.
• Ukraine in the 2025/26 marketing year may export 16.7 million tons — Egypt is potentially capable of purchasing almost the entire volume.