Experts Expect Soybean Exports to Decrease by 37% in the 2025-2026 Marketing Year

Experts predict that in the 2025–2026 marketing year, soybean exports from Ukraine may decrease by 37%. As of the beginning of 2026, farmers have already harvested over 4.85 million tons of soybeans from 99% of the sown area. In recent years, the area planted with soybeans has gradually increased; however, interest in this crop has declined in the new season due to the low prices in the previous period.

This is reported by AgroReview

Impact of Tariffs on Exports and Growth of Processing

The introduction of a 10% tariff on soybean exports has resulted in most of the harvested crop being directed to processing enterprises in Ukraine, while shipments abroad remained minimal. Subsequently, after the government addressed export issues, the situation began to change. Despite export volumes remaining lower than last year, shipments in December reached a record seasonal level of about 350 thousand tons, nearly matching last year’s figures.

Market Prospects and the Role of Logistics

The main trend of the new marketing year has been the reorientation of exporters from selling raw soybeans to exporting processed products – oil and meal. The further dynamics of the market will largely depend on the efficiency of logistics and the stable operation of ports, which have recently often been subjected to attacks from the Russian Federation.

The key trend for the 2025-2026 marketing year remains the shift in focus – from soybean exports to oil and meal.