FAO Forecasts: Wheat Production in Ukraine to Decrease in 2025

Wheat production in Ukraine in 2025 is expected to be below the average of the last five years, according to the forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This is linked to the consequences of the war and potential dry weather conditions that may lead to a moderate decline in yields. This is stated in the FAO announcement.

This is reported by AgroReview

The global forecast for wheat production in 2025 remains unchanged compared to the previous review conducted in March. The total volume of wheat production worldwide is projected to be 795 million tons.

Crop Conditions in Major Producing Countries

The condition of winter wheat crops in key producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere has remained virtually unchanged over the past month. According to official data from the European Union, wheat production is expected to reach 135.5 million tons, which is 12% higher than the previous year. This increase is attributed to the expansion of planted areas and improved yields following the failures of 2024. However, a lack of rainfall in the eastern region may pose risks to potential harvests.

Forecasts for the USA and Canada

In the United States, total wheat production in 2025 is likely to decrease due to reduced yields: a significant portion of winter wheat crops has been negatively affected by drought compared to the previous year. In Canada, preliminary estimates suggest that wheat acreage may increase due to rising prices, but this is likely to be offset by lower yields. As a result, production volume is expected to remain approximately at last year’s level, although it will exceed the five-year average.