US Farmers Concerned About Rising Prices and Fertilizer Shortages in 2027 — Study

According to a survey conducted by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), American farmers are increasingly worried about the cost and availability of fertilizers, especially in the context of planning for 2027. The primary reason for concern cited by farmers is market instability caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

This is reported by AgroReview

Rising Fertilizer Prices and the Impact of Global Markets

Since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, spot and futures prices for key fertilizers have surged. This highlights the region’s role in global trade: the Middle East accounts for 40–50% of international trade in marine urea, and one-third of all global marine fertilizer supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, fertilizer prices in the US have begun to rise sharply, even though retail prices have not yet reached the peak levels of 2022. Meanwhile, corn producers now need a record 185 bushels of corn to purchase one ton of urea, with corn currently priced at around $4.50 per bushel, nearly half of what it was at peak times.

“As the conflict in the Middle East continues, further escalation of issues regarding fertilizer prices and availability adds significant pressure to the agricultural economy, creating immense stress for farmers growing corn in 2026. Farmers are increasingly facing unstable fertilizer markets and uncertainty regarding the availability of essential fertilizers — not only for 2026 but increasingly for 2027 as well.”

Survey Results and Rising Costs of Nitrogen and Phosphate Fertilizers

The data was obtained from two representative surveys: a nationwide farmer survey conducted by Farm Journal at the end of March with nearly a thousand responses, and a specialized survey of NCGA members with over 600 respondents. All surveys were conducted with a margin of error of no more than +/- 5% at a 95% confidence level.

According to the DTN index, the retail price of urea, which accounts for two-thirds of marine fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf, has risen by 37% ($227 per ton) since the start of the conflict. Average national retail prices for other nitrogen fertilizers have increased by 20–23%. Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices are being felt by 90% of surveyed farmers working with retail suppliers.

Currently, 60% of farmers have already secured their nitrogen fertilizer needs for the current year, but among those who have not yet purchased what they need, 25% expressed concerns about future availability. Phosphate fertilizers (DAP and MAP) have seen more moderate price increases: DAP has risen by 1.2% ($10/ton), and MAP by 4.2% ($37/ton) since the end of February. However, considering that these fertilizers account for about 30% of marine supplies from the Persian Gulf region, further disruptions could again lead to rising retail prices. About one-third of respondents report local increases in phosphate fertilizer costs of at least $50 per ton.

Market participants indicate that the current conflict is putting significant pressure on the transportation and production of fertilizers and may negatively impact supplies in 2027. The situation is characterized by logistical difficulties, delays, reduced production, and decreased availability of fertilizers, and this impact may persist even after the conflict ends.