Forecast for Canola Production Growth in Canada for 2025/26
According to the latest report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, an increase in oilseed production is expected in Ukraine, particularly for canola, despite a slight reduction in planted areas. The total oilseed production volume in Canada, which also includes soybeans and sunflower seeds, is projected to reach 25.57 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, slightly exceeding last year’s figures.
This is reported by AgroReview
Canola production is expected to rise to 18.46 million tons, an increase compared to 17.84 million tons in the current season. At the same time, soybean production is forecasted to decrease to 7 million tons, while sunflower seed production is expected to reach 53 thousand tons, slightly above the 51 thousand tons produced this season.
Factors Driving Canola Production Growth
The Canadian version of rapeseed remains a key factor in the overall growth of oilseed production, despite the anticipated reduction in planted areas. Improved soil moisture conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta will also contribute to higher yields compared to 2024.
According to forecasts, the total oil production in Canada will increase by 16 thousand tons in 2025/26, reaching 5.3 million tons. Specifically, canola oil production will amount to 4.94 million tons, of which 3.9 million tons will be exported. The United States is expected to remain the largest importer of Canadian oil, with an import volume of 1.6 million tons, driven by rising demand from the renewable fuels sector.
“High demand for canola oil from the U.S. is expected to persist, as average export prices for canola oil are the lowest since 2020, and a weak Canadian dollar helps offset at least some of the recently imposed tariff costs for American importers,” FAS noted.
The agency also reported that total oil processing capacity in Canada has increased from 8.28 million tons in 2011 to 14.56 million tons in 2025.
Export Forecast
Canola seed export volumes are projected to decline to 6.5 million tons in 2025/26, down from 7.3 million tons in the current year. This is due to a decrease in domestic supply and an increase in processing capacity. It is expected that the share of seed shipments sent for export will be 36%. China will remain the largest buyer of Canadian seeds.
Regarding soybean exports, a reduction to 5 million tons is expected in 2025/26, down from 5.5 million tons in the current season due to a 1% decrease in planted areas to 2.28 million hectares.
The further development of the grain and oilseed market in Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be discussed at the 23rd International BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV Conference, which will take place on April 24 in Kyiv.
We invite all interested parties to join the strategic discussions and networking with industry leaders!