Future Season 2025/26: Opportunities and Challenges for the Ukrainian and Global Agricultural Market

At the BLACK SEA GRAIN conference in Kyiv in 2025, grain market expert Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at UkrAgroConsult, presented a detailed analysis of the situation and prospects for the agricultural sector in the region. According to him, the 2024/25 season brought a significant increase in domestic prices for grain crops in Ukraine, driven by several factors, including a dry summer, high export demand, and global market uncertainty.

This is reported by AgroReview

“Throughout the season, prices on global exchanges remained relatively stable for wheat and increased by 12% for corn,”

the expert noted.

Grain Market: Trends and Challenges for the 2025/26 Season

During the past season, the majority of grain, especially wheat, was exported in the first half of the year. This significantly affected domestic prices, as stocks were reduced to a minimum by the end of the marketing year. At the same time, high prices in Russia restrained exports from that country due to imposed quotas and tariffs. As a result, the redistribution of trade routes created new challenges: exports to Turkey sharply declined, Bulgaria lost the Indonesian market, and competition for wheat in the Algerian market intensified.

Thanks to favorable price conditions, countries in the Black Sea region increased the area sown with wheat for the next harvest. Russia was an exception, where producers are restrained by tariffs, currency fluctuations, and quotas. Forecasts suggest that the region will maintain last year’s wheat production levels, although Russia’s harvest is expected to decline, which will be compensated by better performance in Europe.

Despite this, the global wheat market continues to reduce trading volumes, contributing to the accumulation of stocks in key exporting countries. This trend may negatively impact the price situation at the beginning of the 2025/26 season, as even moderate demand growth from China and Turkey will not fully absorb the excess supply.

Weather Factors and the Outlook for the 2025 Harvest

One of the key factors influencing the price situation remains weather conditions. The warm winter of 2024/25 helped avoid the winterkill of winter crops, but moisture shortages create potential risks for spring vegetation. In April and May, special attention will be paid to the amount of precipitation, which will determine the future harvest in Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

Regarding corn, Ukraine plans to increase the area sown for the 2025/26 season, while Bulgaria and Romania are reducing theirs due to drought risks. Demand from the EU for Ukrainian corn remains high, partially compensating for the decline in harvest in European countries. At the same time, competition with the USA in certain markets, particularly in Asia, is intensifying.

Ukraine remains an important player in the oilseed market. The cultivation of sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans remains profitable, even considering rising production costs. The developed processing industry allows the country to potentially process the entire oilseed harvest independently, which is particularly important in the context of fierce competition in global markets.
Ukraine has also intensified its presence in the sunflower oil market in Turkey, partially losing positions in the markets of India and China, where Russian exports have increased. The prospects for Ukrainian oilseeds depend not only on weather conditions but also on the stabilization of international trade and the conclusion of military actions.