Global Grain Markets Reduce Exports Due to Decreased Imports from China
The global grain market for the 2024/2025 season is undergoing significant changes, driven by reduced import volumes from major consuming countries and declining harvests in key exporters. According to forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat trade volumes may decrease by 9% compared to the previous season. This marks the most significant annual decline in many years, primarily due to reduced purchases from China and Pakistan.
This is reported by AgroReview
Significant Reduction in Wheat Imports from China
China, one of the largest grain consumers in the world, is sharply cutting its wheat purchases. Already in March, the USDA lowered its import forecast for the country to 6.5 million tons, and in April it fell to 3.5 million tons. This is 10 million tons less than last season when China imported 13.6 million tons of grain. Such trends will significantly impact global exports, particularly affecting the Australian market, where China is one of the key importers.
At the same time, the trade war between the U.S. and Russia, which has not yet directly reflected in the statistics, is increasing pressure due to high tariffs imposed by both countries. This is leading to reduced trade volumes and changes in global supply chains.
General Trends in the Grain Market
In addition to China, other factors are influencing the situation. Turkey has imposed restrictions on grain imports due to high domestic stocks. The wheat harvest for the 2024/2025 season in leading exporters—Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine—has been less productive, reducing export volumes. Specifically, the EU’s supply forecast has been lowered from 27 to 26.5 million tons, the lowest level since 2018/2019, and 30% lower than last year’s figures.
Ukraine, despite an increased export forecast of 16 million tons, still lags behind last year’s figures when 18.6 million tons were shipped. Russia plans to export about 44 million tons of wheat in the 2024/2025 season—less than the previous season when the volume exceeded 55 million tons. Meanwhile, global grain production remains high and has even been slightly adjusted downward, while global stocks have risen to 260.7 million tons, the lowest level since 2015/2016.
Trade in other grains, including corn, barley, and rice, is also expected to decrease by 7% in the 2024/2025 season. Corn production is declining globally, particularly in the U.S.—the largest exporter. China, which was the second-largest importer of corn in the 2023/2024 season, is projected by the USDA to cut imports by 65% due to rising domestic production. These changes present new challenges for global grain markets and individual exporting countries.
Overall, the tense situation in the grain markets is driven by trade restrictions, changes in domestic production, and declining harvests in leading countries. For export-dependent countries like Australia, the U.S., and Ukraine, reduced demand from China and other importers may lead to a reassessment of strategies and increased competition in other markets.