Global Grain Markets Reduce Volumes Due to Decreased Wheat Imports by China
Global trade in grains, particularly wheat, is expected to see a significant decline in volumes for the 2024/25 season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), wheat trade will decrease by 9% compared to the previous 2023/24 season. This will mark the most significant decline in the last ten years, impacting global markets.
This is reported by AgroReview
Reduction in Imports and the Impact of Major Players
One of the key reasons is the decrease in wheat imports by major importing countries, particularly China and Pakistan. According to USDA data, domestic wheat production in these countries is increasing, reducing their need for imports. Specifically, wheat imports to China have sharply declined. In March 2025, the forecast for Chinese wheat imports was reduced to 6.5 million tons, and in the April forecast, it was further decreased to 3.5 million tons. This is 10 million tons less than in the 2023/24 season when China imported 13.6 million tons.
Countries exporting wheat to China will feel these changes. In particular, Australia, a key supplier to China, is already noticing a reduction in supply volumes for the 2024/25 season. Although the “trade war” between the U.S. and China is not explicitly mentioned in USDA forecasts, new trade tariffs and political restrictions are deeply affecting trade volumes. In 2024, China was the fourth-largest importer of U.S. wheat, purchasing over $482 million worth.
Other Factors Affecting the Global Grain Market
In addition to the decrease in imports from China, other factors are also influencing the global grain market. For instance, Turkey has imposed import restrictions due to high grain stocks. At the same time, wheat harvests in leading producing countries such as Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine were lower in the 2024/25 season, which reduced these countries’ export capabilities.
The export forecast for the EU has been lowered from 27 to 26.5 million tons, the lowest level since the 2018/19 season and approximately 30% less than in the 2023/24 season. Ukraine, according to USDA forecasts, has increased its export volumes to 16 million tons, which is 500,000 tons more than previous forecasts, but still less than in the 2023/24 season when Ukraine exported 18.6 million tons. Russia expects exports of 44 million tons, which is less than last season’s figure of over 55 million tons.
The overall global wheat production volume for 2024/25 has been revised downward, but it remains at a record high. The forecast for ending stocks of grains has been increased from 260.1 to 260.7 million tons, the lowest level since the 2015/16 season. Global corn production is also expected to decline, particularly in the U.S., the largest exporter.
Overall, global trade in grains for the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 7% compared to the previous season, reflecting global changes in production and imports.