Global Grain Production in 2025/26 Marketing Year to Exceed 3 Billion Tons for the First Time
Global grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year could surpass the 3 billion ton mark for the first time in history. According to forecasts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), harvest volumes are expected to reach 3.003 billion tons.
This is reported by AgroReview
Yield Dynamics of Major Crops
Wheat production is set to increase due to record harvests in Argentina, as well as significant yields in the United States and European Union countries. Feed grains, particularly barley, are also showing an upward trend, although the growth rates are somewhat more modest. As for rice, its production is expected to rise by 1.6% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 558.8 million tons. The largest increases in harvest are anticipated in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia, which will help offset declines in production in countries such as Nepal, Madagascar, Thailand, and the United States.
Agricultural Situation Worldwide
In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting of winter crops for the 2026 harvest has already been completed. However, in the United States, due to drought conditions in certain regions, only 45% of winter wheat acreage is rated in good or excellent condition — this is 10% lower than last year. Meanwhile, in EU countries, planting continues amid favorable weather conditions, although a local rainfall deficit in certain areas of Italy may negatively impact wheat crops. In the Russian Federation, major wheat-growing regions completed planting in November, also under favorable conditions.
High wheat prices are encouraging the expansion of planted areas in India, where they may exceed last year’s record, and in Pakistan, where levels are expected to surpass the multi-year average. Argentina and Brazil have the potential to increase feed grain production, particularly corn, due to the expansion of acreage for this crop.
“The average value of the FAO Grain Price Index rose by 1.8% in November to 105.5 points, which is 5.3% lower than the level in November 2024. Despite significant harvests in Australia and Argentina, global wheat prices increased by 2.5% in November on expectations of rising demand from China and ongoing military actions in the Black Sea.”
Global grain trade in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected to grow by 3.3% compared to the previous season, reaching 500.6 million tons. This applies to both wheat and feed grains.
Corn prices have increased due to delays in planting in Brazil and Argentina. At the same time, the FAO price index for all types of rice has decreased by 1.5% — this is linked to the arrival of new harvests from major exporting countries.