Global Grain Production in 2025 May Exceed 3 Billion Tons – FAO Forecast
According to the updated forecast from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production in 2025 may surpass the 3 billion ton mark for the first time, reaching 3,003 million tons. This is made possible by revised estimates for wheat harvests, particularly due to favorable weather conditions and the expansion of planted areas in Argentina, which will allow for a record harvest of this crop. Increased wheat production is also expected in the European Union and the United States of America.
This is reported by AgroReview
Situation with Rice and Feed Grain Harvests
The FAO has raised its forecast for rice production in Indonesia, as official data indicates a larger-than-expected off-season harvest due to increased planting areas. Additionally, improved forecasts for rice harvests in Bangladesh and Japan have been made. Consequently, the total volume of global rice production in the 2025–2026 marketing season is estimated at 558.8 million tons (in terms of milled rice), which is 1.6% higher than the previous season’s results and sets a new record. The main increases will come from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. This will offset declines in production in Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States.
Regarding feed grains, particularly barley, the FAO has also revised its forecasts upward. In the Southern Hemisphere, the grain planting campaign for the 2026 harvest is ongoing. In Argentina, a recovery in corn production is expected due to the expansion of planted areas and favorable rainfall. In Brazil, an increase in corn acreage is anticipated due to high domestic and external demand, which may lead to exceeding the average over the past five years. In South Africa, a slight increase in corn acreage, primarily of yellow varieties, is also expected due to favorable rainfall forecasts.
Trends in Consumption, Stocks, and Grain Trade
Global grain consumption in the 2025–2026 season may increase by 59.2 million tons (2.1%) compared to the previous year, with increases occurring across all major crops, primarily corn and rice. Favorable prices and ample supply are encouraging feed grain producers, particularly corn, barley, and sorghum, to increase their use for feed purposes, while feed-quality wheat may serve as an economical alternative to other feed ingredients. Global rice consumption is expected to reach 552.8 million tons, which is 2.4% higher than the last record.
“The forecast for global grain stocks at the end of the 2026 season, which were already expected to be at a record level, has been revised upward again this month and currently stands at 925.5 million tons, which is 56.8 million tons, or 6.5 percent, above the level at the beginning of the season.”
Wheat stocks are expected to grow the most in China and India, while exporting countries such as Brazil and the United States will contribute to the increase in feed grain stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio for major grain exporters is expected to reach 22.3% — the highest level since the early 1990s. Rice stocks at the end of the 2025–2026 season are forecasted to be at 216.8 million tons, which will cover global consumption for 4.6 months.
Global grain trade in 2025–2026 is projected to reach 500.6 million tons, which is 3.3% (15.9 million tons) higher than the previous season’s figure. An increase in wheat exports from Argentina is expected, positively impacting purchases by neighboring countries, including Ecuador. Exports of feed grains will grow, and Brazil will enter the market as a sorghum exporter for the first time. International rice trade will remain stable at 61.2 million tons, although this figure is 1.4% lower compared to 2025 due to anticipated reductions in imports in Asia.
