Global Grain Production and Carryover Stocks in 2025/26 Marketing Year Will Reach a 9-Year High
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its January Grain Market Report forecasts that in the 2025/26 marketing year, carryover stocks of grains will reach their highest level in the last nine years. This is due to the expected record harvest: total global grain production is projected to be 2.461 billion tons.
This is reported by AgroReview
Increase in Production and Stocks
According to updated estimates, the IGC has raised its forecast for wheat and coarse grain production by 31 million tons compared to November, and also increased the estimate for carryover stocks by 15 million tons to 634 million tons. As a result, global grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year, according to the council.
The main factors driving this growth include improved harvest prospects for corn (primarily in the USA and China), wheat (thanks to Canada and Argentina), and the expansion of barley production in Canada and Australia. The forecast for global wheat production stands at a record 842 million tons, which is 5% higher than last year.
Consumption and Trade Dynamics
Corn production is also expected to reach a historic high of 1.313 billion tons, which is 6% above last year’s figure. Meanwhile, global consumption of wheat and coarse grains is projected to rise to a record 2.416 billion tons, but the pace of demand growth is not keeping up with the increase in supply.
“If the forecast is realized, carryover stocks of grains will increase by 8% year-on-year — this will be the fastest expansion since the 2017/18 marketing year.”
Production of soybeans in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to decrease slightly to 427 million tons, while consumption of this crop will reach a record 432 million tons (an increase of 3%) due to more active use in the feed, food, and industrial sectors.
Rice production is expected to remain nearly unchanged; however, total consumption will set a new record of 538 million tons. This is related to the growth in population. Global trade in wheat, coarse grains, soybeans, and rice in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to increase slightly.
Against this backdrop, the IGC index of grain and oilseed prices fell by 4% in January compared to November, to 213 points. The largest impact came from the decline in the wheat sub-index. Year-on-year, the decrease is also 4%.