Global Rice Prices Fall to 10-Year Low: Forecast for the 2025-26 Season

In Asia, the base price of rice has dropped to its lowest level in the last decade. This trend may positively impact the expenses of households and countries that rely on grain imports.

This is reported by AgroReview

Price Dynamics in the Rice Market

According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, wholesale prices for Thai white rice with 5% broken grains have decreased by 1.9% to $355 per ton. This is the lowest level since September 30, 2015. Although changes in wholesale prices do not always immediately affect retail prices, cheaper supplies from major producers, particularly Thailand, may contribute to further reductions in rice prices for consumers in many countries.

Rice is a staple food for Asia, Africa, and several regions of the Middle East. For billions of people, this crop is critical, making up to 50% of the diet of residents in Southeast Asia.

Global Production and Harvest Prospects

In 2024, rice prices reached a 15-year high due to increased demand and concerns about supply stability. However, with improved harvest forecasts, prices are gradually decreasing.

According to estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global rice production in the 2025-26 season could reach a record 556.4 million tons, leading to an increase in global stocks. Favorable monsoon rains in India, the world’s largest rice exporter, are also enhancing harvest prospects. This could intensify the surplus of products in the global market and boost exports from India.

“New Delhi previously lifted export restrictions on this product to avoid a surplus in the domestic market.”