Global Urea Prices Increased by 18% Since the Beginning of the Year
The global urea market is showing a significant price increase: since the beginning of the year, spot quotations in the Middle East have exceeded $480/t FOB, which is 18% higher compared to the level at the start of January.
This is reported by AgroReview
Main Trends in the Urea Market
During the latest tender in Qatar, concerning supplies in the second half of March, trader bids were formed in the range of over $470/t FOB. The final deal was concluded at $480/t FOB, which is $20/t higher than the prices recorded ten days ago ($460/t FOB).
In North Africa, there is also an increase in the cost of urea: spot prices here have exceeded the $500/t FOB mark for the first time since November 2025. The price of Egyptian granular urea has risen by $52/t, or 12% since mid-month.
The European market has not remained unaffected: warehouse quotations in La Palliére (France) are approaching €500/t FCA. March supplies from North Africa were offered at prices over $500/t FOB, which is the highest value since last November.
Reasons for Price Increases and Market Expectations
Analysts emphasize that the main reason for the price increase is limited supply. China is almost completely absent from the global market due to export quotas, and Indonesia has only made one export shipment so far. Production in Trinidad has been temporarily halted. Seasonal gas redirection in Iran has led to the removal of up to 450,000 tons of urea from the market per month, while supply disruptions from Venezuela and the shutdown of one of the Black Sea exporters in February have further reduced product availability. Additionally, supply volumes have been decreased by reductions in shipments from Nigeria and Algeria.
Demand for urea remains strong: further increases in purchases from the U.S. are expected in March, as well as possible new tenders from India, which provide additional support for prices. Trading companies are actively building positions, closing previous short sales, which also strengthens the rise in quotations. For European importers, the CBAM policy has become an important factor, forcing them to temporarily take on price risks associated with regulation.
“Current FOB benchmarks are only slightly below the peak values of June – August 2025. The further dynamics in the coming months will largely depend on the purchasing volumes from India and the U.S., as well as the potential resumption of exports from China closer to the second quarter,” experts predict.