Global Wheat Harvest and Consumption in 2025/26 Marketing Year to Reach Record Levels

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that in the 2025/26 marketing year, global wheat production will rise to a record 819 million tons, exceeding last year’s result by 19 million tons. The main drivers of this increase will be the European Union, Russia, and Canada. In particular, EU countries are expected to harvest 140.4 million tons of wheat, which is 18% more than last year. Russia is estimated to increase production to 85 million tons (+5%), while Canada will reach 36.6 million tons (+2%). Ukraine will maintain last year’s production level of 25 million tons, while Australia, despite a slight reduction in harvest by 1%, has raised its forecast to 33.8 million tons.

This is reported by AgroReview

Growth in Consumption and Changes in Demand Geography

Global wheat consumption is expected to rise to 819 million tons, which is 2% more than last year. Notably, there is a significant expansion in the feed usage sector — to 155 million tons, which is 3 million tons more than in the previous season. The main importers are countries in Asia and Africa: Sub-Saharan African nations are importing a record 30.7 million tons, Mexico is setting a historical high of 6.6 million tons, and Brazil is at 6.8 million tons.

Increased Competition Among Exporters

The growth in global wheat supply is leading to heightened competition among leading exporters. Russia remains the largest exporter, forecasting shipments of 43.4 million tons. However, export volumes may be affected by floating tariffs and the margin levels of exporters. The EU significantly increases its exports to 30.5 million tons, compared to 26.1 million tons last year, while Australia reaches a three-year high with a volume of 26.3 million tons. The USA is also boosting its exports to 24.5 million tons due to attractive prices and large contracts with Asian countries.

“Analysts expect continued pressure on prices in the coming months, driven by replenishing stocks among suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere and high production rates in major exporting countries.”

According to forecasts, international trade in wheat flour in the 2025/26 marketing year will reach a nine-year high of 17.3 million tons, which is 1.8 million tons more than last year. The main growth is driven by increasing imports from Iraq — to 1.7 million tons, as well as record purchases by Syria and Sub-Saharan African countries (3.5 million tons).

Among key exporters, Turkey is increasing flour shipments to 5.3 million tons amid the lifting of restrictions on wheat imports. Kazakhstan is also boosting its exports to an eight-year high of 2.9 million tons, capitalizing on increased demand from Central and South Asia.