Global Wheat Market: Record Harvests, Surplus Stocks, and New Challenges
The global wheat market is undergoing significant changes, as stated by AgResource President and Founder Dan Basse during the IAOM MEA conference in Jeddah. According to him, the main trends include record harvests, increasing stocks among major exporters, and an almost complete halt in demand growth.
This is reported by AgroReview
Record Harvests and Growing Global Stocks
Basse emphasized that favorable weather conditions have led to a record average wheat yield of 3.76 tons per hectare in 2025. This is the highest result in history, with planted areas remaining virtually unchanged. If weather conditions remain stable, the global harvest could increase by another 2 million tons in 2026, contributing to a new record level of global stocks.
The expert noted a significant increase in ending stocks in leading wheat-exporting countries. Currently, the stocks-to-consumption ratio is returning to 20%—one of the most comfortable indicators for the market in recent decades. A similar trend is observed in the corn market: total production in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina is expected to exceed 616 million tons in the 2025/26 season, according to AgResource forecasts.
Changing Demand and New Risks for the Market
Despite high production levels, global demand is not growing at the same pace. Dan Basse emphasized that wheat exports have remained consistently high, but growth has practically stalled. It is forecasted that total feed consumption of wheat will remain unchanged in 2026, while imports of feed wheat will decrease by 2.2 million tons (almost 9%) due to increased competition from cheaper corn and sorghum.
“The weather has been favorable,” and according to AgResource estimates, the average wheat yield in 2025 reached a record 3.76 tons per hectare—the highest figure in history without significant expansion of areas.
In this situation, AgResource predicts a period of relatively low wheat prices globally. However, risks for the market remain significant. Among them are a sharp deterioration in weather conditions, particularly widespread drought, as well as geopolitical upheavals, especially in the Black Sea region. Potential threats include possible actions by Russia aimed at destabilizing exports through attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure or disrupting shipping routes.
In conclusion, Dan Basse noted that the wheat market is entering a phase of significant stocks and weaker demand. The main competition among exporters in the coming years will be determined not only by price but also by product quality, supply reliability, and logistics efficiency. The next two seasons will be a true test of flexibility and innovation in the industry.