Global Wheat Production Increased: Ukrainian Market Responds to Price Pressure
Global wheat production reached 842 million tons in January 2026, showing an increase of 12 million tons over the month. The main drivers of this development were record harvests in Australia, Argentina, and Canada.
This is reported by AgroReview
Competition in the Black Sea Region and the Impact of Russia
The wheat market in the Black Sea region is significantly affected by competition from the Russian Federation. FOB offers for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% have again fallen below $230 per ton, creating tough price benchmarks for Ukrainian products in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets. High activity from Russian exporters in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria, combined with reduced transportation costs from Novorossiysk and increased expenses from Odessa, limits Ukraine’s export potential. In response, Ukrainian sellers are forced to enhance their competitiveness by focusing on quality characteristics, delivery speed, and favorable CIF terms.
Export Structure and Price Situation
Since the beginning of January 2026, wheat exports from Ukraine have totaled 348 thousand tons. The main destinations remain MENA countries: 139.6 thousand tons were shipped to Egypt, 112 thousand tons to Algeria, and 44 thousand tons to Yemen. Shipments to the European market are minimal, primarily consisting of feed wheat (for example, Spain received 28 thousand tons).
Spot market prices show significant variability depending on grain quality. Feed wheat is trading in the range of $205–208 per ton, while food wheat is at $210–212 CPT port. The food wheat index has stabilized at $210, while feed wheat has decreased to $205.
“Demand from exporters remains low, logistics are operating steadily, while processors are gradually becoming more active in anticipation of seasonal demand growth.”
In the current conditions, Ukrainian processors are increasing their activity in preparation for the traditional seasonal rise in demand in the domestic market.