Grain and Oilseed Crop Yield Forecast in Ukraine for 2025: Export Prospects

In 2025, Ukraine may harvest grain and oilseed crops at a level of 81.4 million tons, exceeding the figure for 2024, which was 79 million tons. Under these conditions, the export potential for the current season will rise to 49 million tons, compared to 46.7 million tons in the previous season.

This is reported by AgroReview

Logistical Challenges and the Impact of Russian Attacks

Experts emphasize that such a positive scenario is only possible if logistical problems, which are currently acute for Ukraine, are resolved. The ongoing terrorist strikes from Russia on critical infrastructure facilities, including energy enterprises, railway tracks, and seaports, have a significant impact on grain exports. As a result, transport hubs cannot operate fully, complicating export operations.

“The inability to export sufficient volumes of the harvest will not only lead to losses for Ukrainian farmers but could also deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments.”

Main Crop Forecasts

• Wheat: 22.5 million tons (2024 – 22.4 million tons), projected export – up to 16.5 million tons.
• Barley: 4.9 million tons (2024 – 5.6 million tons), export – up to 2.3 million tons.
• Sunflower: 11.5 million tons (2024 – 12.8 million tons), of which almost the entire harvest will traditionally be processed domestically – 11.4 million tons.
• Rapeseed: 3.2 million tons (2024 – 3.8 million tons), export – up to 2.1 million tons, the remainder designated for domestic processing.
• Soybean: 5 million tons, significantly lower compared to 6.8 million tons in 2024, export – up to 2.5 million tons, the rest for domestic processing.

Regarding corn, analysts note positive expectations – thanks to favorable weather conditions and good yields, the gross harvest may reach 32 million tons (in 2024 – 25.9 million tons). The export potential for this crop is estimated at up to 25 million tons.

For 2026, experts forecast a total grain and oilseed crop yield of 84.5 million tons, with possible exports reaching 50 million tons.