Grain Exports from Ukraine Decreased by 24% in the First Seven Months of 2025/26

During the first seven months of the 2025/26 marketing year, from July 2025 to January 2026, Ukraine exported 18.6 million tons of grain crops. This is 24% less than in the same period of the previous season. In monetary terms, the decline in exports amounts to 18%.

This is reported by AgroReview

Main Reasons for the Slowdown in Exports

The pace of Ukrainian grain shipments has significantly decreased due to a number of key factors. First and foremost, the prolonged harvest, particularly of corn, has impacted the figures. As of January 2026, about 8% of the corn area remains unharvested. Adverse weather conditions in the fall, particularly precipitation, hindered the swift completion of the harvest, and the harvested corn has excessive moisture and requires prolonged drying.

Another significant obstacle has been the constant attacks by Russian forces on Ukraine’s port infrastructure, complicating the grain shipment process.

“However, overall for the 2025/26 marketing year, we expect a higher export of grain crops compared to the previous year, although this year it will be significantly stretched over time,” experts noted. They also emphasized that exporting independently remains a more effective option compared to the period when the “grain corridor” involving the UN and Russia was operational.

Logistics Features and Market Impact

In January 2026, 90% of the exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were carried out by sea. Alternative land routes have limited capacity and are more expensive.

Among the main obstacles to uninterrupted exports, experts highlight the destruction of railway and port infrastructure, including elevators, oil extraction plants, railway hubs, bridges, and vessels entering Ukrainian ports for loading. Additionally, port operations often come to a halt during shelling or air alerts, significantly delaying the unloading process. Shipments are often halted due to power outages as well. Furthermore, logistics costs have increased due to rising insurance premiums and vessel downtime.

Despite the obstacles, demand for Ukrainian grains in global markets remains consistently high due to product shortages. According to estimates from the Ministry of Economy, the average monthly export of grains, oilseeds, and processed products currently exceeds 4 million tons. However, this figure is 20% lower than the peak volumes recorded during the active phase of the full-scale war.