Grain Production in China: Forecasts for 2025
Forecasts for grain production in China for the 2025/26 marketing year indicate growth. In particular, corn production may reach 300 million tons, which is a 1.7% increase compared to 2024/25, due to improved yields. At the same time, consumption of wheat and rice from the United States is also on the rise.
This is reported by AgroReview
Changes in Consumption Structure
According to the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) of China, the structure of grain consumption in the country is undergoing changes. The country’s leadership is implementing policies aimed at increasing domestic production and self-sufficiency in grain, supporting strategic reserves, and limiting imports. Specifically, a document published in 2025 emphasizes the importance of food security and yield enhancement programs.
“The Chinese document of 2025 No. 1 continues to highlight strategies for the development of agriculture and rural areas with a priority on food security, focusing on large-scale yield enhancement programs.”
The FAS also anticipates a significant increase in genetically engineered corn acreage, which will positively impact yields. In 2024, approximately 12 million tons of corn are planned for procurement, which will help protect farmers’ incomes. At the same time, the forecast for ending corn stocks is 182 million tons, which is a decrease compared to the previous year due to increased consumption and reduced imports.
Economic Impact and Consumption Forecast
It is noted that Brazilian corn has become the main supplier to China, while imports from the United States are decreasing. The FAS forecasts that corn consumption in 2025/26 will reach 321 million tons, which is a slight increase compared to 318 million tons in 2024/25.
It is expected that feed will account for 65% of total corn consumption in China, with a projected consumption increase of 1%. Meanwhile, wheat production may reach 142 million tons, which also represents a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year.
“The demand for wheat flour has been declining for three consecutive years, primarily due to a shrinking workforce and an aging population.”
Thus, China continues to implement its agricultural development strategy and adapt to new conditions in the grain market.