Increase in Production and Stocks Pressures Global Vegetable Oil Prices
The global vegetable oil market is under significant price pressure due to increasing production and rising stocks, which is changing the trading dynamics of key oilseed crops.
This is reported by AgroReview
Decline in Prices of Soybean, Palm, and Sunflower Oils
In recent months, the main factor driving up prices for vegetable oils has been soybean oil, which has risen by 25% over 2.5 months amid expectations of expanded blending mandates for biofuels in the United States. However, recent actions by the Trump administration have led to a substantial drop in soybean oil quotes, which has immediately affected the prices of palm and sunflower oils.
July futures for soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange fell by 5% over the week to $1099/ton, and after the last trading session, they dropped another 3% to $1065/ton. The reasons include increased stocks of soybean oil in the U.S. and falling oil prices.
Stocks and Production: Key Market Trends
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reports that in April 2025, soybean processing volumes increased by 14% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching a record 5.5 million tons for this month. This led to an increase in soybean oil stocks to 950,000 tons—the highest in the last 10 months. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean oil exports are declining amid increased shipments from Argentina and Brazil.
According to OleoScope experts, prices for soybean oil in the physical market continue to decrease. In Brazil, they stand at $1053/ton FOB, in European Union countries at $1218/ton FOB, and on the Dalian exchange in China at $1081/ton for May delivery. At the same time, in Europe, expensive rapeseed oil ($1207/ton FOB, Netherlands) supports soybean prices, while sunflower oil prices have dropped to $1120-1150/ton for delivery to buyers.
In the Ukrainian market, export prices for sunflower oil delivered to Black Sea ports decreased by $10/ton over the week, reaching $1110-1115/ton, due to increased supply. Meanwhile, prices for Russian sunflower oil remain stable at $1120-1125/ton FOB and $1200/ton CIF Mumbai.
July futures for palm oil on the Malaysian exchange show a 0.7% decrease over the week, to 3896 ringgit/ton ($913/ton), due to low export rates in May. Although palm oil exports from May 1 to 25 increased by 1.6-5.3% compared to the same period in April, production is rising faster, leading to an increase in stocks again.
“Hopes for increased demand for cheap palm oil from India have not materialized, as buyers expect an increase in supplies from Argentina, which is ramping up exports of new crop soybean and sunflower oils.”