US Increases Corn Exports, Impacting Prices in Ukraine
The European Commission has adjusted its corn harvest forecast for EU countries for the 2025/26 marketing year, lowering it from 60.1 to 57.6 million tons. This is 3.4% less than last year, indicating a decrease in the domestic supply of grain in Europe. At the same time, corn imports to the EU are expected to rise to 18.8 million tons in the new season, although this is still 6.4% less than in the 2024/25 marketing year, when the import volume was 20 million tons.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of American Corn on the European Market
The significant increase in corn exports from the US has intensified pressure on the European market. Over the past month, November corn futures on the Paris exchange have fallen by 2.9%, reaching a minimum level not seen in the last year and a half — €189/ton ($224/ton). The reasons for this decline include active imports of cheap American corn and increased wheat production in the EU, a significant portion of which will be used as feed due to the low quality of this year’s harvest.
In contrast, December corn futures in Chicago have risen by 2.4% over the month, reaching $165/ton. This increase is attributed to high export rates in the 2024/25 marketing year and significant sales for the new season. However, even after the increase, the price is still 6% lower than in September 2024, due to a record harvest in the US.
Export Structure and Prospects for Ukraine
According to the US Department of Agriculture, export sales of the 2024 corn crop already amount to 70.475 million tons, which corresponds to 98% of the projected annual export. For the new crop, which will be exported in the 2025/26 marketing year, 18.775 million tons have already been contracted out of the planned 73 million tons.
“The Council of the European Union will consider an update to the free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU in September 2025, which may increase quotas for the import of Ukrainian agricultural products, including corn – by 53% to 1 million tons and wheat – by 30% to 1.3 million tons.”
In the 2024/25 marketing year, when the duty-free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU was in effect, EU countries imported 10.9 million tons of corn from Ukraine, accounting for over half of all imports (55%). At the same time, the EU increased corn supplies from the US to 4 million tons and from Canada to 2 million tons.
As a result of active competition and limited demand, forward export prices for Ukrainian corn continue to decline, currently standing at $193–200/ton with delivery to Black Sea ports. The lack of strong export demand creates additional pressure on the prices of Ukrainian producers.