India Forecasts Record Rice Harvest and Wheat Production Growth in 2025/26 Marketing Year
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that India may harvest a record 152 million tons of rice in the 2025/26 marketing year. This will mark a historic high for the country, which traditionally leads global production of this crop. At the same time, significant growth in wheat production is expected, reaching 117.9 million tons, surpassing last year’s figure of 113 million tons.
This is reported by AgroReview
Production of Major Crops: Trends and Forecasts
Despite positive trends in the grain sector, oilseed production in India, according to USDA data, may decrease to 40.3 million tons, which is lower than the 41.5 million tons achieved in the 2024/25 season. This occurs against the backdrop of an increase in the area planted with oilseeds: as of early December, they occupied 8.41 million hectares, compared to 8.17 million hectares last year. To reduce dependence on imports and stimulate domestic production, the government is implementing the National Mission on Edible Oils and Oilseeds. The program covers crops such as rapeseed, mustard, peanuts, soybeans, and sunflowers, and includes the introduction of high-yield varieties as well as the establishment of over 600 clusters for production development.
Factors Behind the Record Harvest and Changes in Agricultural Structure
The record rice harvest has been significantly influenced by the increase in sown areas and favorable weather conditions. According to satellite imagery analysis, as of December 5, Indian farmers had sown 24.14 million hectares of wheat, significantly exceeding last year’s figure of 21.78 million hectares. Analysts note an active shift among farmers from cotton cultivation to rice, as this crop demonstrates higher yields and lower risks. Key factors for success included abundant rainfall during the sowing campaign and the late retreat of the monsoon, which provided sufficient rainfall in late August and September.
“According to estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture of India, rice production in the kharif season is expected to reach 124.504 million tons, which is 1.732 million tons more than last year.”
The total production of food grains in the kharif season is expected to be around 173.33 million tons, indicating stable growth in the country’s agricultural sector. Thus, India maintains its position as a leading producer of major agricultural crops, increasing production volumes through effective resource utilization and government support for farmers.