Market Analysis: Prices for Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn Fluctuate Due to External Factors
In May, significant price volatility was observed in global agricultural markets for major grains and oilseeds. Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reached a peak not seen since late July on Wednesday, driven by a temporary easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China and hopes for the continuation of tax incentives for biodiesel in the U.S.
This is reported by AgroReview
Factors Influencing the Soybean Market
Since Wednesday, concerns have resurfaced regarding biofuel policy: rumors suggest that next year’s renewable diesel targets may be significantly lower than the 5.25 billion gallons proposed by the oil and biofuel producers’ alliance. As noted by Terry Lynn, Vice President of Linn & Associates:
“This has been a disappointment for those who were counting on a large amount.”
Positive expectations from the truce in the trade war between the U.S. and China are gradually fading amid anticipation of concrete outcomes from negotiations. According to consulting firm AgResource, if the parties fail to reach an agreement, U.S. soybean exports could decline by 20%, leading to a drop in prices. Meanwhile, soybean barge offers are decreasing, and soybean meal prices in the U.S. Midwest continue to fall due to weak demand.
In April 2025, U.S. NOPA member plants processed 190.226 million bushels of soybeans (2.2% less than in March, but 12.3% more than in April last year). This is the highest figure for the fourth month of the year, thanks to expanded production capacity driven by demand from the biofuel sector. Soybean oil stocks increased by 1.9% compared to March, but were 16.6% lower than a year ago.
Soybean futures fell significantly at the end of the week, mainly due to a sharp decline in soybean oil prices—resulting from concerns about future biofuel volumes. July soybean futures on the CBOT decreased by 26.5 cents to $10.51 1/4 per bushel, while soybean oil fell by 3 cents to 49.32 cents per pound. Conversely, soybean meal rose by $4.5 to $296.40 per short ton.
Market Dynamics for Wheat and Corn
Wheat prices in the U.S. increased due to rising demand for cheap raw materials and forecasts of high yields in Kansas—53 bushels per acre, the highest since 2021. For the week, wheat export sales totaled 804,800 tons, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Saudi Arabia announced a tender to purchase 655,000 tons of wheat for delivery from August to October 2025.
September wheat futures on the CBOT closed at $5.46 1/2 (+7 1/2 cents), while December futures closed at $5.68 (+7 1/4 cents). Kansas City wheat finished trading in September at $5.42 (+5 cents). European wheat prices rose amid increasing quotes in the U.S. and drought conditions in Northern Europe. Strategie Grains raised its EU harvest forecast: soft wheat—129.8 million tons (+1.7 million compared to last month), barley—52.4 million tons (+1.2 million).
In the corn market, U.S. futures showed mixed dynamics. The July CBOT contract rose by 3 cents to $4.48 1/2 per bushel, while the December contract fell by 1 3/4 cents to $4.38 3/4. U.S. corn export sales reached 2.186 million tons for the week, exceeding market expectations. Corn production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season is projected at 125 million tons, with farmers planning to increase the second crop by 11% to 99.8 million tons due to favorable weather conditions.
In the canola market, ICE Futures prices for futures sharply declined due to a massive sell-off of soybeans and oil in Chicago, as well as speculative activity. The July contract fell to 694.40 Canadian dollars per ton (down 27.10 dollars), while the November contract dropped to 668.00 (down 24.10 dollars).