Palm Oil Stocks in March Indicate Price Decline

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported an increase in production in March, estimating the ending stocks of crude palm oil at 1.38 million tons by the end of March. This indicates the beginning of a seasonal upward trend in palm oil production.

This is reported by AgroReview

The price of crude palm oil (CPO) remained at 4,740 ringgits per ton in March. However, due to the completion of soybean harvesting in Brazil, a seasonal decline in food oil prices is expected in the second quarter of the current year.

“The seasonal decline was anticipated. The recent drop in oil prices continues to guarantee subdued demand for biodiesel, but its impact on CPO prices remains limited. We maintain an average CPO price of 4,200 ringgits per ton in 2025 and 4,000 ringgits in 2026,” the report stated.

Markets are witnessing declines in CPO futures prices, which fell to the lowest level in six months as of October 2024. This is linked to the decrease in soybean oil and crude oil prices on the Chicago exchange, which has also affected palm oil prices.

Analysts believe that the price decline is driven by forecasts of seasonal increases in CPO supplies in the coming months, necessitating a competitive pricing policy for tropical oil compared to other vegetable oils. It is also worth noting that the price of palm oil is trading at a premium of $584 compared to low-sulfur gas.

The report also indicated that despite high interest rates, export figures remain low, with April data suggesting exports of around one million tons.

According to OleoScope data, as of April 11, 2025, the price of palm oil (FOB Malaysia) for April delivery was $1,062.16/ton, while the price of soybean oil (CBOT) for April delivery was $1,043.89/ton, which is $22.71/ton higher than the value from April 10, 2025 ($1,021.18/ton). This is the highest value for the week.