Prices for Ukrainian Wheat Decline Due to Russian Dumping and Record Harvest in Argentina
Last week, the market for Ukrainian wheat saw a further decline in prices. The cost of 4th class wheat dropped to $205 per ton on DAP-port terms, while 3rd class wheat traded at $214 per ton, and 2nd class at $215 per ton DAP-port.
This is reported by AgroReview
Main Factors Pressuring Prices
One of the main reasons for this trend has been the weakening of currency quotations, which has led to a decrease in the value of wheat even in hryvnia equivalent. Analysts note low purchasing activity on CIF and FOB bases. This significantly restricts the export opportunities for Ukrainian traders and reduces the overall demand for domestic grain.
“Consequently, against the backdrop of weakening currency quotations, an active decline in prices has also been observed in hryvnia equivalent. The key factor pressuring the market remains low purchasing activity on CIF and FOB bases, which significantly limits the export opportunities for Ukrainian traders,” the report states.
Increased Competition in the Global Market
Additional pressure on the Ukrainian market is created by the aggressive export policy of the Russian Federation. Russia is actively offering significant volumes of wheat at reduced prices on the global market, particularly in North African countries, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are traditionally key for Ukrainian exports. Significant grain stocks in Russia allow it to maintain a large supply volume and continue dumping, which intensifies competition for Ukrainian exporters.
Another important factor is the expectation of a record wheat harvest in Argentina. This creates additional pressure on global prices and shapes expectations of excess supply in the market, which also negatively affects the demand for Ukrainian grain.
The situation is further complicated by rising freight costs associated with increased war risks for shipping. This further reduces the competitiveness of Ukrainian grain, especially in distant markets. Experts predict that the trend of declining prices for Ukrainian wheat may persist in the near future.