Prospects for the Sunflower Oil Market in the 2025/26 Season: Impact of Harvest and Prices
The sunflower oil market in the 2025/26 marketing year will undergo significant changes due to agro-climatic factors and the dynamics of yields from key producers. The Black Sea-Danube region, which remains a leader in global sunflower production, has demonstrated an 8% increase in planted areas compared to the previous season. However, this did not guarantee a record harvest – the impact of adverse weather conditions led to a 0.4% decrease in total yield compared to last year.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Weather Conditions on Yield
Ukraine and Russia, which hold key positions in sunflower production, faced a reduction in yields during this year’s harvest, particularly in southern regions, due to drought in the summer. A similar situation is observed in European Union countries – the forecast for March 2025 has decreased by 1.2 million tons, with over 60% of all European production coming from the Black Sea-Danube region.
Competition in Global Markets and Pricing
Argentina, the third-largest global supplier, is strengthening its presence in Asian markets, particularly in India, due to competitive pricing. Despite this, there is currently a global shortage of sunflower oil supply, keeping it in the premium segment compared to other vegetable oils.
At the beginning of November, there was a correction in sunflower oil prices. At the same time, the current harvest volume in the 2025/26 marketing year does not allow for full utilization of production capacities in Ukraine, so the issue of sufficient oil supply will remain relevant throughout the season.
“At the beginning of November, there was a correction in sunflower oil prices. We consider this a correction because the final yield in the 2025/26 marketing year will not cover the capacities of Ukraine’s surplus processing industry, and the issue of sunflower oil supply will remain relevant throughout the season.”
Analysts emphasize that to make effective business decisions, it is important to consider professional forecasts and in-depth market analysis regarding the agricultural sector of Ukraine and the countries of the Black Sea region.